Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
